The First of a new series of articles that looks at future technology concepts. In this article the Geek looks at the future of PC's. The realistic future of the PC is probably death and
obsolescence. However, a radical
restructuring of how systems are designed could give them a chance at surviving
the next twenty year. What the Geek
proposes is quite radical, and he doubts the industry would ever be willing to
take such bold steps, but if you want to see the Geeks vision of future PC’s,
check it out after the jump.
...
What is the PC of the future? Well, in the Geeks future, the PC has evolved to be a true competitor to the console industry. And oddly enough, to compete with the console, the geek feels the PC must become one. Why does this have to happen? Well the trick is to look at what they key problems are with today’s PC. The Geek has streamlined these problems into 3 key areas, Hardware Variation, Legacy, and Life cycle.
Hardware variation is the problem caused by the fact that there are hundreds of companies producing far too many types of hardware for PC’s. Hundreds of different video card, motherboards, processors and memory types can be found inside PC’s today. Furthermore, each can use different connection types, memory speeds, cooling types and more. Now in the old days this would be touted as one of the PC’s greatest strengths. But today, it serves as an Achilles heel for content designers, who have to code support of hundred of hardware configurations, many of which still do not function properly. It’s also a problem for consumers trying to purchase hardware, who are forced to guess at the differences between a Radeon x700 and a 9800 pro GT (or a 9800 without the GT designation, or the non pro model, or god knows what else). This variation is no longer a benefit, and hardware lines must be reduced and simplified.
Legacy is the next hurdle to overcome, where operating systems are forced to include support for products which tend to be from five to ten years older then the release date of the OS. Legacy code restricts developers from embracing the best new technology has to offer. It waters down new features by making their use optional, out of fear a legacy product might not run if they were required. Technology like DOS, FAT32, and 32 bit processing have all stuck around much longer then they should have due to developers fearing someone might still want to open a 1982 spreadsheet in Lotus 1-2-3.
Life cycle is the last of the major problems affecting today’s PC. How long does your PC stay the cutting edge machine that it was the day you bought it? 6 months? A year? Maybe two or 3 years if you’re willing to limp along with older applications, or horribly running new ones? Why is it that a console gets better as it ages, while PC’s gradually fall apart? Simply put, it’s caused by hardware manufacturers that create products that have a life cycle of a year or two at most, and developers who decide to create products that rely on you having hardware from the current life cycle only. The PC needs to extend its life cycle to the point where its systems will run well with any product released in the next 2 to 3 years, as opposed to a year or less.
So how do we address these issues. What are the solutions we can implement, especially for the three primary problems of hardware variation, legacy and life cycle? Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce you to the Winbox.
The Winbox is a full function PC. However it uses a small form factor case, and cannot be cracked open like a traditional PC. It does have the future equivalent of USB and Firewire for external peripherals, as well as rear and front facing PC Cart slots. What is a PC Cart? Well, it’s a plastic cartridge that contains a board such as a high end sound card or video card. But its plastic enclosure allows it to be slid into the system via slots in the back or front of the case. The upgrading of a PC Cart is just a matter of sliding out the old one and inserting a new one. All software drivers are including in the hardware, and auto update via the net without prompting. A user of the winbox will never open their system.
It is important to understand, however, that there are very few carts to put in your Winbox. Part of the systems appeal is that it is created through an alliance between windows and a select few hardware manufacturers. For example the Winbox only supports 6 video cards, 3 from Nvidia, and 3 from ATI. Of the three each offers, there designations are simply Basic, Pro, and Ultimate, with is further simplified by a numerical rating of 1,2, or 3. Only Soundblaster makes sound carts for the Winbox, and again they only offer 3 models. Memory in the Winbox is also contained in a Cart, provided by a single manufacturer at 3 levels. Likewise for the hard drive. The processor and motherboard are not upgradeable, but there are 3 levels to choose from when purchasing a Winbox. The Winbox runs the OS it ships with, and while it can be improved through service packs, it can not be upgraded to a later release. The current Winbox, The Winbox 720, has a 4 year lifecycle. It is offered in three models (one with all level 1 components, one with all level 2 components, etc.), but users can upgrade some of these components, just to a very limited degree. The Winbox basic is very popular for office work, where as the Winbox pro offers good gaming support, and the Winbox Ultimate can play game at their highest setting. However all will include basic features of wireless, a hard drive, etc, to avoid the current console blunder of changing the feature set for different models.
It is important to understand that all software for the Winbox is matched with these various level of hardware. All non gaming apps must be able to run on a winbox basic, as well as all non-3D games. All 3D games must run well on the Winbox Pro or the Winbox Ultimate, however, when running on the Pro, all settings are reduced to half of what they are set at for the Ultimate. All software made for the Winbox 720 will function well on they system during its 4 year life cycle. Developers will not create software that exceeds the capability of pro or ultimate model during the life cycle. Instead, knowing that all the hardware available has been fixed in place since the Winbox’s introduction, they will work on refining the use of this hardware, much in the same way console designers find ways to push their systems to greater heights as they spend more time working with the same hardware.
There are many benefits to this style of PC design. First, by limiting the system to a few dozen configurations (as opposed to thousands) will prevent the vast majority of hardware conflicts present today. Applications, especially games, will run out of the box, without fear that it might not like your video card, or support your sound card. Second, due to the limited number of parts being made, and by only one or two manufacturers, their price will drastically plunge, where high end systems can be bought for half the price they are today (much like how the Xbox 360 at $299 can contain a video card that alone costs over 500 bucks for the pc version). The longer life cycle for performance applications will give consumers much more confidence that the systems they buy will run applications well for years to come without having to wonder when something will require an upgrade. A new Winbox every 4 years also means that the OS and hardware configurations will receive a complete overhaul without fear of having to support any legacy hardware or software.
Personally, I would much prefer to buy a Winbox 720 – Ultimate for $600, and then use that system for 4 years of no conflicts, no thoughts of upgrades, every app running well. And then, when the Winbox 1080 – Ultimate came out 4 years later, just passing my old model off to the kids and buying the new one.
I am sure many people would consider this Future PC blasphemy, in fact they wouldn’t consider it a PC at all. They would be enraged they couldn’t over clock the ram on their video card, or that they couldn’t install a six drive raid array, but… who cares? The hardcore will always be the hardcore, and their purchases and preferences affect such a small portion of the computer market that they really don’t matter Thy can build their machines however they like and run some 3rd party winbox emulator. The vast majority of regular computer users, however, would finally have the purchasing, upgrading, and use of their systems simplified into something that truly works as intended. But that’s just the Geeks future; we’ll have to see what happens in yours.
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